No clear favorite. September 30 leads at just 12%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 12% | +733% | $26K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The inters...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Stavky by...? will occur, with $124K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — September 30 leads at only 12% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 19, 2026 at 04:25 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 12% probability, with $124K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $124K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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