No clear favorite. September 30 leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 34% | +194% | $2K |
| 2 | July 31 | 10% | +900% | $35K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The i...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Toretske by...? will occur, with $98K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — September 30 leads at only 34% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (19% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 02, 2026 at 13:25 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 34% probability, with $98K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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