The market strongly favors December 31 at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 90% | +10% | $131K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified d...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Vodianske by...? will occur, with $189K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: December 31 is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $13K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 30, 2026 at 18:45 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 90% probability, with $189K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $189K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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