No clear favorite. July 31 leads at just 10%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 10% | +900% | $33K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026,...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...? will occur, with $433K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — July 31 leads at only 10% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $19K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 09, 2026 at 13:35 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 10% probability, with $433K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $433K, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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