The market strongly favors September 1 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 1 | 100% | - | $233 |
| 2 | September 2 | 100% | - | $992 |
| 3 | September 3 | 100% | - | $3K |
| 4 | September 4 | 100% | - | $2K |
| 5 | September 8 | 92% | +9% | $2K |
| 6 | September 9 | 78% | +29% | $124 |
| 7 | September 10 | 78% | +29% | $56 |
| 8 | September 14 | 74% | +34% | $30 |
| 9 | September 15 | 74% | +34% | $66 |
| 10 | September 11 | 73% | +37% | $28 |
| 11 | September 20 | 73% | +37% | $783 |
| 12 | September 13 | 72% | +38% | $28 |
| 13 | September 16 | 72% | +38% | $45 |
| 14 | September 21 | 72% | +38% | $67 |
| 15 | September 19 | 72% | +39% | $28 |
| 16 | September 17 | 72% | +40% | $50 |
| 17 | September 24 | 72% | +40% | $27 |
| 18 | September 18 | 70% | +42% | $35 |
| 19 | September 12 | 68% | +48% | $41 |
| 20 | September 29 BEST VALUE | 67% | +49% | $248 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military acti...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia target Kyiv on...? will occur, with $44K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: September 1 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (33% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 07, 2026 at 19:45 UTC, the leading outcome is September 1 at 100% probability, with $44K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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