The market strongly favors August 11 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 11 | 100% | - | $12K |
| 2 | August 12 | 66% | +52% | $58 |
| 3 | August 13 | 65% | +54% | $16 |
| 4 | August 26 | 62% | +63% | - |
| 5 | August 17 | 56% | +80% | - |
| 6 | August 18 | 53% | +89% | - |
| 7 | August 19 | 52% | +90% | - |
| 8 | August 28 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 9 | August 29 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 10 | August 16 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | August 20 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | August 21 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | August 23 | 48% | +106% | - |
| 14 | August 15 | 46% | +120% | - |
| 15 | August 22 | 41% | +144% | $3 |
| 16 | August 14 | 40% | +147% | - |
| 17 | August 24 | 40% | +150% | - |
| 18 | August 25 | 31% | +223% | - |
| 19 | August 30 | 31% | +223% | - |
| 20 | August 27 BEST VALUE | 30% | +233% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military acti...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia target Kyiv on...? will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: August 11 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 11, 2026 at 22:45 UTC, the leading outcome is August 11 at 100% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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