The market strongly favors October 5 at 92%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 5 | 92% | +8% | $617 |
| 2 | October 6 | 92% | +8% | $594 |
| 3 | October 8 | 92% | +9% | $460 |
| 4 | October 15 | 92% | +9% | $492 |
| 5 | October 26 | 91% | +10% | $655 |
| 6 | October 9 | 90% | +10% | $672 |
| 7 | October 23 | 90% | +11% | $430 |
| 8 | October 7 | 90% | +12% | $703 |
| 9 | October 12 | 90% | +12% | $630 |
| 10 | October 13 | 90% | +12% | $495 |
| 11 | October 2 | 89% | +12% | $333 |
| 12 | October 21 | 89% | +12% | $339 |
| 13 | October 3 | 88% | +14% | $444 |
| 14 | October 31 | 86% | +16% | $731 |
| 15 | October 20 | 85% | +18% | $201 |
| 16 | October 19 | 84% | +18% | $445 |
| 17 | October 17 | 84% | +20% | $131 |
| 18 | October 28 | 83% | +20% | $140 |
| 19 | October 16 | 82% | +21% | $130 |
| 20 | October 18 BEST VALUE | 80% | +26% | $189 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Trump publicly insult someone on...? will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: October 5 is priced at 92%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 02, 2026 at 05:05 UTC, the leading outcome is October 5 at 92% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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