No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 14%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $2.3M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 14% | +641% | $1.3M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Cri...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? will occur, with $2.3M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 14% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $123K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 30, 2026 at 22:15 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 14% probability, with $2.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.3M, with $123K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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