No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 19%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 19% | +426% | $6K |
| 2 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | $8K |
| 3 | July 31 | 2% | +6150% | $26K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market...
This prediction market tracks whether Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...? will occur, with $39K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 19% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (35% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 20, 2026 at 11:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 19% probability, with $39K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms