No clear favorite. August 31 leads at just 6%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 6% | +1639% | $49K |
| 2 | July 31 | 1% | +7043% | $5K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control o...
This prediction market tracks whether Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...? will occur, with $55K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — August 31 leads at only 6% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $47K traded in the last 24 hours alone (86% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 27, 2026 at 07:25 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 6% probability, with $55K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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