The market strongly favors Nick Begich III at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Begich III | 100% | - | $2K |
| 2 | Bill Hill | 100% | - | $5K |
| 3 | John Williams | 3% | +3409% | $14K |
| 4 | Matthew "Bronco" Williams | 1% | +9424% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will adv...
This prediction market tracks whether Alaska At-Large Primary Winners will occur, with $49K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Nick Begich III is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (23% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 02, 2026 at 07:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Nick Begich III at 100% probability, with $49K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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