Market is split — October 31 at 60%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 31 | 60% | +68% | $154 |
| 2 | September 30 BEST VALUE | 40% | +153% | $40 |
| 3 | August 31 | 4% | +2717% | $19K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, th...
This prediction market tracks whether Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...? will occur, with $19K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with October 31 leading at just 60%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (96% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 22, 2026 at 08:25 UTC, the leading outcome is October 31 at 60% probability, with $19K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms