1.8T+ leads at 83%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.8T+ | 83% | +20% | $237K |
| 2 | 1.5–1.8T BEST VALUE | 9% | +1005% | $53K |
| 3 | 1.2–1.5T | 4% | +2310% | $35K |
| 4 | No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 4% | +2640% | $54K |
| 5 | <0.6T | 2% | +5028% | $22K |
| 6 | 0.9–1.2T | 1% | +13233% | $27K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "N...
This prediction market tracks whether Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) will occur, with $455K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward 1.8T+ at 83%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $14K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 18, 2026 at 14:45 UTC, the leading outcome is 1.8T+ at 83% probability, with $455K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $455K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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