The market strongly favors Tom Cotton (R) at 93%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Cotton (R) | 93% | +8% | $44K |
| 2 | Hallie Shoffner (D) | 6% | +1686% | $32K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that h...
This prediction market tracks whether Arkansas Senate Election Winner will occur, with $76K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Tom Cotton (R) is priced at 93%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (21% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 22, 2026 at 14:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Tom Cotton (R) at 93% probability, with $76K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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