0-10 leads at 68%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-10 | 68% | +46% | $113K |
| 2 | 10-20 | 14% | +641% | $27K |
| 3 | 60+ | 8% | +1207% | $28K |
| 4 | 20-40 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $16K |
| 5 | 40-60 | 3% | +2799% | $14K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls...
As of May 14, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is 0-10 at 68% probability, with $199K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $199K, with $100K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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