Market is split — Mississippi at 56%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi | 56% | +78% | $3K |
| 2 | State K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | State L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | State M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | State N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | State O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Alaska | 11% | +773% | $5K |
| 8 | Maine BEST VALUE | 10% | +880% | $5K |
| 9 | Nebraska | 4% | +2757% | $3K |
| 10 | Louisiana | 4% | +2757% | $3K |
| 11 | Ohio (Special) | 2% | +4155% | $3K |
| 12 | Montana | 2% | +4248% | $2K |
| 13 | Iowa | 2% | +5028% | $9K |
| 14 | Michigan | 2% | +5028% | $3K |
| 15 | Kansas | 2% | +5163% | $16K |
| 16 | South Carolina | 1% | +7043% | $8K |
| 17 | Minnesota | 1% | +7592% | $2K |
| 18 | Texas | 1% | +8596% | $7K |
| 19 | Florida (Special) | 1% | +11011% | $4K |
| 20 | Arkansas | 1% | +13233% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this m...
This prediction market tracks whether Closest Senate Race? will occur, with $87K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Mississippi leading at just 56%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (26% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 04, 2026 at 04:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Mississippi at 56% probability, with $87K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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