This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 31 12:00 PM ET to April 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 240-259 | 12% | $17K |
| 2 | 280-299 | 12% | $18K |
| 3 | 260-279 | 12% | $24K |
| 4 | 220-239 | 12% | $22K |
| 5 | 300-319 | 10% | $15K |
| 6 | 320-339 | 10% | $12K |
| 7 | 340-359 | 8% | $12K |
| 8 | 200-219 | 6% | $16K |
| 9 | 360-379 | 4% | $12K |
| 10 | 180-199 | 4% | $20K |
| 11 | 380-399 | 3% | $16K |
| 12 | 400-419 | 3% | $12K |
| 13 | 420-439 | 2% | $12K |
| 14 | 160-179 | 2% | $22K |
| 15 | 440-459 | 1% | $13K |
| 16 | 140-159 | 1% | $21K |
| 17 | 460-479 | 1% | $12K |
| 18 | 480-499 | 1% | $12K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is 240-259 at 12% probability, with $2.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.9M, with $547K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade