No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 7%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 7% | +1329% | $45K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant Europea...
This prediction market tracks whether European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...? will occur, with $223K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 7% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $26K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 12, 2026 at 10:35 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 7% probability, with $223K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $223K, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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