No clear favorite. October 31 leads at just 2%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 31 | 2% | +5961% | $41K |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The isla...
This prediction market tracks whether Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? will occur, with $267K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — October 31 leads at only 2% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $32K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 16, 2026 at 08:45 UTC, the leading outcome is October 31 at 2% probability, with $267K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $267K, with $32K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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