No clear favorite. September 30 leads at just 6%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 6% | +1702% | $33K |
| 2 | August 31 | 2% | +4900% | $21K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The isla...
This prediction market tracks whether Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? will occur, with $54K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — September 30 leads at only 6% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $46K traded in the last 24 hours alone (85% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 08, 2026 at 05:25 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 6% probability, with $54K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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