The market strongly favors Ashley Moody (R) at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashley Moody (R) | 90% | +10% | $119K |
| 2 | Angie Nixon (D) | 10% | +953% | $75K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to rep...
This prediction market tracks whether Florida Senate Election Winner will occur, with $194K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Ashley Moody (R) is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $28K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 07, 2026 at 02:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Ashley Moody (R) at 90% probability, with $194K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $194K, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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