Market is split — Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 56%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 56% | +77% | $26K |
| 2 | Candidate A BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Candidate K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Candidate L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Candidate M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Candidate N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Candidate O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Candidate P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Candidate Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Candidate R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Candidate S | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round...
This prediction market tracks whether French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place will occur, with $126K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon leading at just 56%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (16% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-18. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 12, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 56% probability, with $126K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $126K, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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