No clear favorite. November 6 leads at just 27%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 6 | 27% | +270% | $2K |
| 2 | November 10 | 10% | +926% | $554 |
| 3 | November 5 | 10% | +953% | $3K |
| 4 | November 11 | 9% | +1011% | $591 |
| 5 | November 12 | 7% | +1427% | $2K |
| 6 | No release by November 30 | 6% | +1438% | $4K |
| 7 | November 18 | 6% | +1609% | $411 |
| 8 | November 23 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1823% | $579 |
| 9 | November 4 | 4% | +2678% | $1K |
| 10 | November 9 | 3% | +3536% | $641 |
| 11 | November 24 | 2% | +5961% | $423 |
| 12 | November 8 | 2% | +6352% | $392 |
| 13 | November 14 | 2% | +6567% | $813 |
| 14 | November 22 | 1% | +7900% | $190 |
| 15 | November 28 | 1% | +8991% | $260 |
| 16 | November 7 | 1% | +11665% | $2K |
| 17 | November 15 | 1% | +16567% | $864 |
| 18 | November 25 | 1% | +16567% | $242 |
| 19 | November 13 | 1% | +18082% | $280 |
| 20 | November 16 | 1% | +18082% | $180 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designat...
This prediction market tracks whether GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...? will occur, with $23K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
No clear favorite has emerged — November 6 leads at only 27% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours alone (85% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 04, 2026 at 17:15 UTC, the leading outcome is November 6 at 27% probability, with $23K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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