Sagal Abdi-Wali leads at 79%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sagal Abdi-Wali | 79% | +27% | $12K |
| 2 | Candidate B BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Candidate K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Candidate L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Candidate M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Candidate N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Candidate O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Candidate P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Candidate Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Candidate R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Candidate S | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Candidate T | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market...
This prediction market tracks whether Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner will occur, with $39K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Sagal Abdi-Wali at 79%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (34% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 11, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Sagal Abdi-Wali at 79% probability, with $39K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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