The market strongly favors Below 4.0% at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Below 4.0% | 100% | - | $32K |
| 2 | Below 4.9% | 82% | +22% | - |
| 3 | Below 4.8% | 61% | +64% | - |
| 4 | Below 4.7% | 40% | +153% | $21K |
| 5 | Below 4.6% | 17% | +488% | $33K |
| 6 | Below 4.4% | 14% | +590% | $25K |
| 7 | Below 4.5% | 13% | +691% | $21K |
| 8 | Below 4.3% BEST VALUE | 12% | +733% | $7K |
| 9 | Below 4.1% | 3% | +2885% | $13K |
| 10 | Below 3.9% | 3% | +3075% | $57K |
| 11 | Below 4.2% | 3% | +3536% | $7K |
| 12 | Below 3.6% | 2% | +4248% | $13K |
| 13 | Below 3.8% | 2% | +4445% | $65K |
| 14 | Below 3.7% | 2% | +4778% | $38K |
| 15 | Below 2.0% | 2% | +5305% | $5K |
| 16 | Below 3.0% | 2% | +5614% | $8K |
| 17 | Below 1.0% | 1% | +6797% | $41K |
| 18 | Below 3.5% | 1% | +8233% | $44K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No"....
This prediction market tracks whether How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? will occur, with $429K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Below 4.0% is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $14K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 23, 2026 at 01:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Below 4.0% at 100% probability, with $429K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $429K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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