The market strongly favors <100 at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | <100 | 86% | +16% | $27K |
| 2 | 100-124 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $3K |
| 3 | 150-174 | 2% | +4248% | $780 |
| 4 | 175+ | 2% | +4445% | $2K |
| 5 | 125-149 | 1% | +7307% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 13, 2026, through July 19, 2026, inclusive....
This prediction market tracks whether How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13? will occur, with $34K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: <100 is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (46% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 16, 2026 at 19:25 UTC, the leading outcome is <100 at 86% probability, with $34K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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