No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 10%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $70.6M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $75K |
| 2 | September 30 | 4% | +2640% | $346K |
| 3 | August 31 | 1% | +9424% | $4.5M |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” m...
This prediction market tracks whether Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? will occur, with $70.6M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 10% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $97K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-03-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 07:15 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 10% probability, with $70.6M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $70.6M, with $97K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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