No clear favorite. June 30 leads at just 8%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $42.6M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 8% | +1076% | $2.6M |
| 2 | May 31 | 4% | +2199% | $6.4M |
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” m...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 8% probability, with $42.6M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $42.6M, with $173K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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