The market strongly favors May 20 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $57.9M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 20 | 100% | - | $507K |
| 2 | May 21 | 100% | - | $1.3M |
| 3 | May 22 | 100% | - | $9.3M |
| 4 | May 24 | 100% | - | $31.9M |
| 5 | May 23 | 100% | - | $3.2M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered...
As of Jun 03, 2026 at 00:55 UTC, the leading outcome is May 20 at 100% probability, with $57.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $57.9M, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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