The market strongly favors June 15 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $69.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 15 | 100% | - | $4.9M |
| 2 | June 30 | 100% | - | $5.9M |
| 3 | July 15 | 100% | - | $249K |
| 4 | July 31 | 100% | - | $346K |
| 5 | June 22 | 100% | - | $186K |
| 6 | June 8 | 100% | - | $11.8M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran closes its airspace by...? will occur, with $69.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: June 15 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 13, 2026 at 00:25 UTC, the leading outcome is June 15 at 100% probability, with $69.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $69.4M, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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