Market is split — June 30 at 48%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $13.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 48% | +111% | $27K |
| 2 | May 31 | 36% | +174% | $2.5M |
| 3 | May 24 | 27% | +270% | $38K |
| 4 | May 21 | 18% | +441% | $41K |
| 5 | May 18 BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | $180K |
| 6 | May 15 | 4% | +2464% | $2.7M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 48% probability, with $13.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $13.8M, with $600K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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