December 31 leads at 83%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 83% | +20% | $9K |
| 2 | August 31 | 66% | +53% | $2K |
| 3 | July 31 | 56% | +80% | $3K |
| 4 | July 15 | 42% | +138% | $920 |
| 5 | June 30 | 32% | +208% | $3K |
| 6 | June 15 | 18% | +471% | $898 |
| 7 | June 14 | 16% | +545% | $2K |
| 8 | June 11 | 14% | +614% | $9K |
| 9 | June 13 | 14% | +614% | $2K |
| 10 | June 12 | 14% | +641% | $3K |
| 11 | June 10 BEST VALUE | 13% | +697% | $43K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Ot...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran closes its airspace by...? will occur, with $136K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward December 31 at 83%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $136K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 83% probability, with $136K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $136K, with $136K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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