July 9 leads at 79%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 9 | 79% | +27% | $9K |
| 2 | July 10 | 46% | +115% | $4K |
| 3 | July 11 | 38% | +167% | $853 |
| 4 | July 15 | 35% | +186% | $107 |
| 5 | July 12 | 34% | +194% | $81 |
| 6 | July 13 | 34% | +194% | $336 |
| 7 | July 14 | 30% | +233% | $81 |
| 8 | July 27 | 28% | +251% | $457 |
| 9 | July 31 | 26% | +277% | $20 |
| 10 | July 23 | 26% | +292% | $140 |
| 11 | July 22 | 25% | +300% | $140 |
| 12 | July 17 | 24% | +317% | $133 |
| 13 | July 24 | 24% | +317% | $173 |
| 14 | July 25 | 24% | +326% | $140 |
| 15 | July 26 | 24% | +326% | $133 |
| 16 | July 30 | 24% | +326% | $25 |
| 17 | July 19 | 23% | +335% | $82 |
| 18 | July 28 | 23% | +335% | $190 |
| 19 | July 20 BEST VALUE | 22% | +365% | $82 |
| 20 | July 29 | 22% | +365% | $103 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” Qualify...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran military action against a gulf state on...? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward July 9 at 79%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 09, 2026 at 12:35 UTC, the leading outcome is July 9 at 79% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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