The market strongly favors November 8 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 8 | 100% | - | $45K |
| 2 | November 9 | 99% | +1% | $6K |
| 3 | November 11 | 99% | +1% | $2K |
| 4 | November 10 | 99% | +1% | $2K |
| 5 | November 25 | 84% | +18% | $828 |
| 6 | November 12 | 84% | +20% | $983 |
| 7 | November 16 | 81% | +23% | $50 |
| 8 | November 13 | 80% | +25% | $357 |
| 9 | November 15 | 79% | +27% | $1K |
| 10 | November 30 | 78% | +27% | $582 |
| 11 | November 14 | 78% | +29% | $378 |
| 12 | November 28 | 76% | +31% | $144 |
| 13 | November 21 | 75% | +33% | $264 |
| 14 | November 23 | 74% | +34% | $440 |
| 15 | November 29 | 74% | +34% | $670 |
| 16 | November 17 | 74% | +35% | $602 |
| 17 | November 24 | 74% | +35% | $617 |
| 18 | November 27 | 74% | +36% | $336 |
| 19 | November 18 BEST VALUE | 73% | +37% | $495 |
| 20 | November 19 | 73% | +37% | $420 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military...
This prediction market tracks whether Israel military action against Lebanon on...? will occur, with $74K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: November 8 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $35K traded in the last 24 hours alone (47% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 11, 2026 at 15:45 UTC, the leading outcome is November 8 at 100% probability, with $74K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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