The market strongly favors October 2 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 2 | 100% | - | $4K |
| 2 | October 3 | 100% | - | $1K |
| 3 | October 4 | 97% | +3% | $6K |
| 4 | October 31 | 92% | +9% | $686 |
| 5 | October 12 | 90% | +10% | $249 |
| 6 | October 5 | 90% | +12% | $2K |
| 7 | October 6 | 89% | +12% | $2K |
| 8 | October 11 | 89% | +12% | $548 |
| 9 | October 28 | 88% | +13% | $2K |
| 10 | October 10 | 88% | +14% | $317 |
| 11 | October 8 | 86% | +17% | $1K |
| 12 | October 14 | 86% | +17% | $457 |
| 13 | October 9 | 84% | +18% | $123 |
| 14 | October 21 | 84% | +18% | $168 |
| 15 | October 13 | 76% | +31% | $189 |
| 16 | October 18 | 75% | +33% | $120 |
| 17 | October 16 | 74% | +35% | $63 |
| 18 | October 23 | 74% | +35% | $94 |
| 19 | October 29 | 72% | +38% | $268 |
| 20 | October 19 BEST VALUE | 71% | +41% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military...
This prediction market tracks whether Israel military action against Lebanon on...? will occur, with $89K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: October 2 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $69K traded in the last 24 hours alone (77% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 05, 2026 at 16:15 UTC, the leading outcome is October 2 at 100% probability, with $89K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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