The market strongly favors September 3 at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 3 | 94% | +6% | $4K |
| 2 | September 5 | 65% | +54% | - |
| 3 | September 9 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 4 | September 10 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 5 | September 13 | 50% | +98% | $11K |
| 6 | September 21 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 7 | September 30 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 8 | September 7 BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | September 11 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | September 12 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | September 14 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | September 15 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | September 16 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | September 18 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | September 20 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | September 22 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | September 23 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | September 24 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | September 25 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | September 27 | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifyi...
This prediction market tracks whether Israel military action against Lebanon on...? will occur, with $31K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: September 3 is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $31K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 04, 2026 at 06:55 UTC, the leading outcome is September 3 at 94% probability, with $31K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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