Adam Hamilton (D) leads at 62%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $2.3M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Hamilton (D) | 62% | +63% | $1.1M |
| 2 | Roger Marshall (R) | 38% | +160% | $1.2M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he...
This prediction market tracks whether Kansas Senate Election Winner will occur, with $2.3M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Adam Hamilton (D) at 62%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $265K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 02, 2026 at 14:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Adam Hamilton (D) at 62% probability, with $2.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.3M, with $265K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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