No clear favorite. Amal Movement (Amal) leads at just 3%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amal Movement (Amal) | 3% | +2841% | $61K |
| 2 | Lebanese Forces (LF) | 2% | +4344% | $161K |
| 3 | Hezbollah (Hezb) | 1% | +15285% | $49K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliamen...
This prediction market tracks whether Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner will occur, with $609K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Amal Movement (Amal) leads at only 3% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $29K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 23, 2026 at 07:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Amal Movement (Amal) at 3% probability, with $609K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $609K, with $29K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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