Rafael López Aliaga leads at 71%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael López Aliaga | 71% | +42% | $209K |
| 2 | Person B BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person C | 50% | +100% | - |
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| 8 | Person H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Person I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Person J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Person K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Person L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Person M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Person N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Person O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Person P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Person Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Person R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Person S | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Person T | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this e...
This prediction market tracks whether Lima Mayoral Election Winner will occur, with $593K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Rafael López Aliaga at 71%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $17K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-05. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 31, 2026 at 05:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Rafael López Aliaga at 71% probability, with $593K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $593K, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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