No clear favorite. No prison time leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No prison time | 34% | +199% | $386K |
| 2 | 60+ | 25% | +300% | $38K |
| 3 | 20–40 | 20% | +408% | $51K |
| 4 | <20 | 8% | +1083% | $96K |
| 5 | 40–60 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1182% | $21K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was...
This prediction market tracks whether Maduro Prison Time? will occur, with $591K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — No prison time leads at only 34% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $19K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 25, 2026 at 11:15 UTC, the leading outcome is No prison time at 34% probability, with $591K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $591K, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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