Market is split — No prison time at 56%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No prison time | 56% | +79% | $589K |
| 2 | 60+ | 21% | +376% | $166K |
| 3 | <20 BEST VALUE | 9% | +1030% | $123K |
| 4 | 40–60 | 4% | +2199% | $31K |
| 5 | 20–40 | 3% | +3348% | $64K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was...
This prediction market tracks whether Maduro Prison Time? will occur, with $973K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with No prison time leading at just 56%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $37K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 28, 2026 at 08:45 UTC, the leading outcome is No prison time at 56% probability, with $973K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $973K, with $37K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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