AfD leads at 84%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AfD | 84% | +20% | $15K |
| 2 | SPD | 16% | +545% | $51K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number...
This prediction market tracks whether Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner will occur, with $272K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward AfD at 84%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $22K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 22, 2026 at 22:35 UTC, the leading outcome is AfD at 84% probability, with $272K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $272K, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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