The market strongly favors Cleitinho Azevedo at 89%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleitinho Azevedo BEST VALUE | 89% | +12% | $179K |
| 2 | Patrus Ananias | 5% | +2074% | $13K |
| 3 | Mateus Simões | 4% | +2199% | $34K |
| 4 | Alexandre Kalil | 2% | +4155% | $41K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first...
This prediction market tracks whether Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner will occur, with $458K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Cleitinho Azevedo is priced at 89%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $58K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 18, 2026 at 22:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Cleitinho Azevedo at 89% probability, with $458K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $458K, with $58K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms