The market strongly favors Peggy Flanagan (D) at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 94% | +6% | $491K |
| 2 | Michele Tafoya (R) | 6% | +1438% | $313K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that...
This prediction market tracks whether Minnesota Senate Election Winner will occur, with $804K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Peggy Flanagan (D) is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $177K traded in the last 24 hours alone (22% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 02, 2026 at 09:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Peggy Flanagan (D) at 94% probability, with $804K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $804K, with $177K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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