Hartzell Gray leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hartzell Gray | 72% | +39% | $20K |
| 2 | Candidate A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Jordan Herrera BEST VALUE | 17% | +502% | $8K |
| 7 | Jeanette Cass | 2% | +4900% | $715 |
| 8 | G Rick | 1% | +12400% | $645 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 m...
This prediction market tracks whether MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner will occur, with $32K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Hartzell Gray at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (50% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 02, 2026 at 11:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Hartzell Gray at 72% probability, with $32K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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