The market strongly favors Democrat 3%+ at 87%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democrat 3%+ | 87% | +15% | $3K |
| 2 | Person A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Democrat 0-3% | 6% | +1462% | $3K |
| 6 | Republican 0-3% BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $1K |
| 7 | Republican 3-6% | 1% | +8233% | $2K |
| 8 | Republican 6-9% | 1% | +10426% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 MO-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified electio...
This prediction market tracks whether MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Democrat 3%+ is priced at 87%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 04, 2026 at 19:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Democrat 3%+ at 87% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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