The market strongly favors August 31 at 93%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 93% | +8% | $17K |
| 2 | July 31 | 72% | +40% | $2K |
| 3 | July 17 BEST VALUE | 38% | +163% | $886 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and t...
This prediction market tracks whether Moscow air traffic suspended by...? will occur, with $19K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: August 31 is priced at 93%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (85% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 10, 2026 at 04:25 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 93% probability, with $19K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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