No clear favorite. July 31 leads at just 20%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 20% | +388% | $3K |
| 2 | June 30 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $10K |
| 3 | June 26 | 4% | +2122% | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market w...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — July 31 leads at only 20% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 23, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 20% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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