No Next Chancellor before 2028 leads at 67%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 67% | +49% | $43K |
| 2 | Person A BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Person C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Person D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Person E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Person F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Person G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Person H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Person I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Person J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Person K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Person L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Person M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Person N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Person O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Person P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Person Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Person R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Person S | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028? will occur, with $61K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 67%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (19% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 02, 2026 at 07:35 UTC, the leading outcome is No Next Chancellor before 2028 at 67% probability, with $61K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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