Market is split — No government formed at 40%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No government formed | 40% | +150% | $9K |
| 2 | Other | 26% | +292% | $1K |
| 3 | Y + T + B + D | 12% | +713% | $2K |
| 4 | L + Y + T + B | 8% | +1233% | $2K |
| 5 | L + Y + T BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $2K |
| 6 | L + Y | 4% | +2678% | $454 |
| 7 | L + S + U + O + Z + T | 4% | +2717% | $526 |
| 8 | Y + T + B + D + R | 3% | +3290% | $1K |
| 9 | Y + T + D + S + U + R | 3% | +3348% | $398 |
| 10 | Y + T + B + D + R + J | 3% | +3348% | $356 |
| 11 | L + Y + T + B + S + U | 3% | +3348% | $376 |
| 12 | Y + T + B + D + S | 2% | +4155% | $356 |
| 13 | L + S + U + O + Z + Y | 2% | +4778% | $396 |
| 14 | L + S + U + O + Z + B | 2% | +4900% | $376 |
| 15 | Y + T + D + S + U | 2% | +5961% | $518 |
| 16 | L + S + U + O + Z | 2% | +6150% | $366 |
| 17 | L + Y + T + S + U | 1% | +7307% | $462 |
| 18 | Y + T | 1% | +15285% | $423 |
| 19 | L + Y + S + U | 1% | +16567% | $437 |
| 20 | Y + T + B + D + S + U | 1% | +16567% | $425 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Knesset election. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the...
This prediction market tracks whether Which coalition will form the next Israeli government? will occur, with $24K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with No government formed leading at just 40%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (62% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 02, 2026 at 20:45 UTC, the leading outcome is No government formed at 40% probability, with $24K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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