The market strongly favors Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 93%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul St-Pierre Plamondon | 93% | +8% | $43K |
| 2 | Christine Fréchette BEST VALUE | 5% | +1842% | $86K |
| 3 | Charles Milliard | 3% | +3604% | $23K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the sp...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Premier of Quebec will occur, with $355K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is priced at 93%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $24K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 22, 2026 at 12:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 93% probability, with $355K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $355K, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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