July 31 leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 72% | +38% | $18K |
| 2 | July 10 | 34% | +194% | $1K |
| 3 | July 3 | 21% | +376% | $3K |
| 4 | June 26 BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | $505 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to contin...
This prediction market tracks whether Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward July 31 at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 23, 2026 at 06:55 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 72% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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