No clear favorite. Valdez 5–10% leads at just 23%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valdez 5–10% | 23% | +342% | $4K |
| 2 | Valdez <5% | 20% | +388% | $3K |
| 3 | Valdez 10–15% | 19% | +426% | $5K |
| 4 | Valdez 15%+ | 13% | +691% | $3K |
| 5 | Reynoso <5% | 11% | +789% | $325 |
| 6 | Reynoso 5%+ BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $2K |
| 7 | Other | 2% | +3900% | $290 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-07 Democratic Primary....
This prediction market tracks whether NY-07 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Valdez 5–10% leads at only 23% across 7 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (83% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 21, 2026 at 01:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Valdez 5–10% at 23% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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