Lander 30%+ leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lander 30%+ | 66% | +53% | $5K |
| 2 | Lander 20–30% | 18% | +471% | $394 |
| 3 | Lander 10–20% BEST VALUE | 14% | +614% | $7K |
| 4 | Goldman wins | 1% | +7043% | $378 |
| 5 | Lander <10% | 1% | +11011% | $387 |
| 6 | Other | 1% | +13233% | $309 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-10 Democratic Primary....
This prediction market tracks whether NY-10 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Lander 30%+ at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (87% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 21, 2026 at 05:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Lander 30%+ at 66% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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